The European tank market remained fairly stable for many years, with the German Leopard 2 being the most common model used by European armies, while the UK, France and Italy all produced small numbers of indigenous models for their own militaries.
Yet a flurry of new tank designs are being conceived in Europe, prompted in part by the war in Ukraine, Europe’s fiercest armored battle since 1945. But it may also reflect a lack of confidence in the Main Ground Combat System, a joint Franco-German project to develop a main battle tank by 2040.
“All the industrial partners seem to be working on developing their own technologies to replace MGCS,” French defense expert Leo Périat Peigner told Business Insider.
It was inevitable that a new generation of tanks would emerge to replace the late Cold War designs that still dominate Western militaries, such as the Leopard 2, M1 Abrams, and Britain’s Challenger. Even the U.S. Army is working on a next-generation M1 Abrams that would weigh less than 60 tons, down from its current 70-ton bulk.
The MCGS is intended to replace the Leopard 2 and the French Leclerc as main battle tanks for the German and French armies. The two countries recently signed an agreement to begin development and production of prototypes. At the same time, however, it appeared that the MGCS could also replace the Leopard 2 as a pan-European tank. The MGCS is intended to be a modular design with advanced features such as a 140 mm gun, hybrid propulsion, advanced sensors, and the ability to work with unmanned ground vehicles. A concept model revealed in 2018 used the Leopard 2 hull and the Leclerc turret.
However, there are indications that Germany wants an alternative design based on the latest Leopard 2A8 model, in case the MCGS fails. According to defense news site Army Recognition, “an improved version of the Leopard 2A8 tank, the Leopard 2AX, is being developed by the German defense industry at the express request of the Bundeswehr.”
“This deployment would also serve as a Plan B in case the joint German-French plan fails, and as leverage for future negotiations, presenting France with a fait accompli regarding important decisions yet to be made,” Army Recognition said.
Meanwhile, KNDS, a joint venture between German defense company Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, manufacturer of the Leopard 2, and France’s Nextar, which makes the Leclerc, has proposed two new designs.
The Leopard 2 A-RC 3.0 is a modular design with an unmanned turret that fits inside the hull, similar to the Russian T-14 Armata. It can fire guided missiles and heavy cannon rounds, and is fitted with a 30mm cannon and improved armor with an active protection system to stop anti-tank rockets. Existing Leopard 2 models can also be retrofitted with these capabilities.
Notably, KNDS is “evaluating the Leopard 2 A-RC 3.0 not only as a bridging solution to the introduction of the next-generation ground combat system (MGCS), but also as a definitive technological precursor to MGCS,” the company said in a press release.
KNDS is also promoting the Leclerc Evolution with its Ascalon turret and gun, which the company describes as “a tank gun more powerful than any weapon with a comparable barrel. It fires compact, programmable ammunition beyond the line of sight with minimal wear. Due to its scalability, the Ascalon can be fitted with a 120 to 140 mm barrel.”
As if the procurement situation weren’t complicated enough, four other companies — KNDS Deutschland, KNDS France, Germany’s Rheinmetall, and France’s Thales — have just announced a joint venture to develop MGCS. However, Rheinmetall is also selling the KF51 Panther tank, which is fitted with a new 130mm gun. Hungary has a contract to develop the Panther, and Rheinmetall has offered the contract to Ukraine as well.
Political turmoil in France is also casting a shadow over MGCS, with a far-right party expected to win the next parliamentary elections. “Even the German government seems to think that the MGCS project could be abandoned if the right-wing party takes power,” Périat Pegné said.
“Time will make the situation clearer, but it is clear that both countries have alternative plans up their sleeves. Germany has been doing so for a long time. The new surprise is that KNDS France seems to be doing the same.”
European defense budgets are already strained by the need to replenish depleted stockpiles, constantly supply arms and ammunition to Ukraine, and build the manufacturing capacity to produce all these weapons, which raises the question of whether there will be enough funding for all these different tank designs.
But the MGCS woes also highlight a problem that has always plagued European joint defense projects: the tension between the cost savings of joint development and domestic pressures to prioritize national projects that benefit domestic manufacturers and workforces. If MGCS is abandoned, it would bode ill for the Future Combat Air System, a joint French-German-Spanish project to develop sixth-generation fighter jets and air combat drones.
“Abandoning the MGCS would be more costly for France than for Germany, because Germany doesn’t need France to build new tanks,” Périat Peignier said. “Unlike with the FCAS, France can do it alone technically, but it doesn’t have the funds to develop it on its own.”
Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy and other publications. He holds a Master’s in Political Science from Rutgers University. twitter And LinkedIn.
