This map shows projected deaths from heatwaves across Europe.
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Heat warnings have already been issued across Europe this summer, with experts predicting another record-breaking hot year due to climate change, but it can be difficult to gauge how dangerous it might be for you.
A new tool aims to fill that gap by predicting the likelihood of death during heatwaves in different parts of Europe, using data based on age and sex.
According to researchers at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), around 70,000 people will die from heatstroke in Europe this summer. The team combined historical mortality data with weather forecasts to create a first-of-its-kind tool that they hope will save lives in the future.
“Until now, temperature warnings have been based solely on the physical information of weather forecasts, ignoring differences in vulnerability to heat and cold among population groups,” explains Joan Ballester Claramunt, lead scientist in ISGlobal’s Adaptation Group.
“The problem is, this information is the same for everyone, but the impact is actually different,” he says.
The Barcelona-based scientist’s system “changes this paradigm” by shifting the focus from meteorology to epidemiology – the study of diseases and other public health concerns.
As extreme weather events become more prevalent, epidemiological models are essential for developing new impact-based early warning systems, they say.
Launched online today, Forecaster.health is Europe’s first publicly accessible platform to predict the true mortality risk of temperature across different demographics.
Who is most at risk during a heatwave?
According to ISGlobal, temperature is responsible for more than five million premature deaths worldwide each year, more than 300,000 of which occur in Western Europe alone.
Our vulnerability to heat is influenced by a variety of factors, including gender and age.
“We know, for example, that women are more sensitive to heat than men and that the risk of death from heat or cold increases with age,” says Marcos Quijar Zamorano, a researcher at ISGlobal and one of the system’s authors.
For example, in its forecasts running through June 30, Forecaster.health has issued a heat alert for women in Italy’s Campobasso region and a high temperature warning for men. In nearby Potenza, extreme heat is expected for both men and women aged 75-84, but only a low temperature warning has been issued for people aged 65-74 in the region.
Why are women at higher risk of dying during heat waves?
“I’m not 100% sure that all older women are aware that they are at higher risk than men – and if they knew, that might make a difference,” Ballester told Euronews Green.
There are many factors behind this phenomenon, he explains. Socioeconomics offers some answers: Women tend to have lower salaries and therefore fewer resources to protect themselves, such as air conditioning. Women are more likely to be widowed, making them more likely to live alone and without support.
It is also important to understand that heatwaves often kill people with underlying comorbidities such as obesity, diabetes, infections and cancer, and the heat acts as an additional deadly stressor.
In men, these complications appear at a younger age, which is why young men are more susceptible to heat than younger women. Women have a higher survival rate and a longer life expectancy as a group, which is why older women are more susceptible to heat.
How can scientists predict deaths from heat waves?
Forecaster.health uses the mortality database from the EU-funded research project EARLY-ADAPT, which currently contains data for 580 regions across 31 European countries.
Users can enter the dates for which they want to see health forecasts for the next two weeks and filter by population subgroups.
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The tool then displays a map showing warnings for 580 regions, with a color-coded display showing four levels of heat- or cold-related mortality risk: low, medium, high and extreme.
This has to do with hard numbers, Ballester explains: Epidemiological models calculate temperature-attributable mortality rates based on a given forecast, and an extreme warning means that more than 20 percent of tomorrow’s deaths are predicted to be due to temperature.
How can heatwave mortality maps save lives?
In most countries, heatwave warnings are issued by meteorological agencies, disseminated by the media, and acted upon by public health authorities and the public.
What the ISGlobal team wants is a change in the information itself, not the system: Understanding how the same temperature can kill people or affect their health in different ways would allow more informed decisions to be made, Ballester says.
“I think about my 95-year-old father all the time. He has a son who is an epidemiologist. [him about the age difference]He doesn’t realize the risks it poses to him.
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“So I think the general public has a significant lack of knowledge about these issues,” he added. “This tool also aims to change some of these habits by raising awareness.”
“We need to provide tailored warnings,” Ballester believes, or “we’re not doing our best to prevent deaths.”
Scientists want to build a multipurpose disaster platform
Ultimately, the plan is to develop Forecaster.health into a multi-hazard platform for Europe and the rest of the world.
Over the coming months and years, the researchers plan to expand the platform in various directions, starting with adding new countries and smaller regions to the platform as new data becomes available.
The tool is also expected to build new epidemiological models incorporating health warnings for several air pollutants, including particulate matter, ozone, and nitrogen dioxide.
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Finally, the platform will also alert on specific causes of death, such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, as well as other health outcomes, such as hospitalizations and occupational injuries.
“Our approach relies heavily on the availability of health data to fit our epidemiological model. If the data are provided, we would like to add health outcomes for more countries and smaller regions in Europe and other continents,” adds Ballester.
